Astounding byelection losses are about more than Tory MPs’ conduct – the party has a big general election problem

Byelection results in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire represent new lows for a Conservative government that will soon be obliged to confront its mortality.

Even allowing for the capacity of byelections to produce startling results, the scale of collapse was jaw-dropping. The swing of 23.9% in Tamworth was the second largest Conservative-to-Labour shift we have seen, as a 19,634 majority was removed. Only 53 seats were safer for the Conservatives than Tamworth at the 2019 general election.

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