Airport runway collisions and near-misses are happening more frequently, 22 years of data show

Four close calls on Sydney Airport runways in as many weeks have put air traffic management in the spotlight.

It’s too early to determine the exact cause of each one. But four ground-safety occurrences at Australia’s busiest airport in a little over three weeks raise an obvious question: how common are occurrences like these, and are they becoming more frequent?

To examine the broader pattern, I analysed Australian Transport Safety Bureau data from 2003 to 2025 for Australian commercial air transport, focusing on runway incursions (the incorrect presence of an aircraft,…

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