Polls understated Democrat vote in landslide repudiation of Donald Trump

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

All 435 United States federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were up for election in yesterday’s midterm elections.

In the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over the Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Due to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, Democrats needed at least a net four-seat gain to win control of the Senate.

Democrats have gained a total of seven Senate seats, with five of those gains coming in…

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