Democrats likely to gain control of Congress in US midterm elections as Senate lead expands

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Democrats have an 82% chance of gaining control of the Senate in the US midterm elections this week, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in US analyst Nate Silver’s forecast model. In the last week, there has been clear movement to Democrats in the Senate.

We should know by Wednesday afternoon Australian Eastern Daylight Time if the Democrats have wrested control of Congress from the Republicans – but it’s far from clear exactly…

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