Can we predict genocide by listening to what leaders say? Research finds common threads

By Svitlana Chernykh, Senior Lecturer, School of Politics & International Relations, Australian National University
Benjamin E. Goldsmith, Professor of Political Science, Australian National University
Sascha Nanlohy, Honorary Associate, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney; Australian National University

On the eve of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech. Several things stood out. He started by discussing the fundamental threat posed to Russia by “the West”.

This, he claimed, included the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which he emphasised was becoming more dangerous, threatening…

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