Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23.

In his forecast model, Democrats are the clear favourites to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives.

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.

However, if the disruption…

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