The psychology of overconfidence: why excessive self-belief is often a successful strategy in life

By Chris Dawson, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science, School of Management, University of Bath
David de Meza, Professor of Management, Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science

People are overconfident, on the whole. Most of us believe we are more intelligent, more skilful or better drivers than the average person. But we can’t all be right.

Such beliefs are not harmless. Overconfidence – and the self-deception that drives this excessive self-belief – can contribute to extreme risk-taking, failed businesses, disastrous investments,…

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