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One in 1,000 years? Old flood probabilities no longer hold water

By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Australia’s catastrophic east coast floods have been described by the NSW premier as a “one in 1,000-year event, a term that has created a great deal of confusion.

Lengthy explanations that these terms are not the same as "occurring 1,000 years apart” or “once every 1,000 years” have only added to the confusion.

The simplest explanation is that the actual meaning of “one in 1,000 years” is “having a probability of 0.1…

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