Arctic sea ice decline seemed to be slowing – until two record-breaking low-ice winters

By Duo Chan, Lecturer in Climate Sciences, University of Southampton
Alessandro Silvano, NERC Independent Research Fellow in Oceanography, University of Southampton

Arctic sea ice appeared to be entering a new phase. In the early 2020s, the rapid decline seen over previous decades seemed to ease, leading scientists to ask whether winter sea ice loss had slowed.

Our new study suggests that conclusion was premature. After two exceptionally low-ice winters in 2025 and 2026, the recent slowdown disappears. The almost 6% drop between 2024 and 2025 was the largest single-year decline on record. The latest observations restore a statistically significant downward trend, showing how…

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