Get ready for a budget slowdown. But Chalmers insists we won’t see a recession

By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has called his budget “ambitious in the face of adversity”.

Speaking to reporters in the lockup on Tuesday, he acknowledged his latest budget is “not exactly the same budget we would have handed down in February for obvious reasons”.

The main adversity is a Middle East war that has disrupted around a fifth of global seaborne oil and gas supply. It has also hit global supply chains for fertiliser, chemicals, aluminium and plastics. Treasury assumes the global economy will slow from 3.5% growth in 2025 to 3% in 2026.

A slowing economy

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