What is the chance of a message in a bottle being found?

By Kevin Burke, Associate Professor in Statistics, University of Limerick
David O'Sullivan, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick

Recently, a cheerful 100-year-old message in a bottle was found on the south-west coast of Australia. In it, a world war one soldier proclaimed to be “as happy as Larry”.

If you’re a betting person, you probably wouldn’t expect great odds of this happening. A bottle cast into the ocean could end up absolutely anywhere.

If it floats to a remote location, there is little chance of somebody stumbling upon it. And if it lands somewhere more favourable where people could potentially find it, there…

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