Is Australia at risk of a recession? Here’s what the data actually shows

By Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

Talk of a recession in Australia has picked up in recent weeks. Rising fuel prices, a sharp fall in consumer confidence, and signs of softer spending have all added to concerns the economy may be losing momentum.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. By that standard, Australia is not there yet — but the key question is what the data are telling us about the likelihood of getting there.

The answer depends on which data you…

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