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New Start’s expiration will make the world less safe – even if it doesn’t spark another nuclear arms race

By Paul van Hooft, Research Leader, Defence and Security, RAND Europe

The New Start nuclear arms control treaty expires on February 4, opening up the way for a period of great power uncertainty and the possibility of a new arms race.

The US-Russian agreement, negotiated in 2010 and extended in 2021, limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550, with roughly 3,500 non-deployed warheads in reserve. It was the last of the arms control agreements that were rooted…

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