One Nation surges above Coalition in Newspoll as Labor still well ahead, in contrast with other polls

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The aftermath of the Bondi terror attacks has brought about a shift in polling for the Albanese government, which has been riding high since its thumping win in the 2025 federal election.

In the latest polls, Labor leads in Newspoll by 55–45 but only by 52–48 in Resolve. In Newspoll, Labor has 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 22% and the Coalition just 21%, but Resolve has the Coalition ten points ahead of One Nation.

A national Newspoll,…

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