Can bigger-is-better ‘scaling laws’ keep AI improving forever? History says we can’t be too sure

By Nathan Garland, Lecturer in Applied Mathematics and Physics, Griffith University

OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman – perhaps the most prominent face of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that accelerated with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 – loves scaling laws.

These widely admired rules of thumb linking the size of an AI model with its capabilities inform much of the headlong rush among the AI industry to buy up powerful computer chips, build unimaginably large data centres, and re-open shuttered nuclear plants.

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