Why did the polls get the Caerphilly byelection wrong? They ignored the fact Reform is an English nationalist party

By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

The results of the Caerphilly Senedd byelection held on October 23 were certainly a shock to Labour and to the Conservatives, but they also cast doubt on the reliability of polling as well. It had for some time appeared that Reform was in the running to win the seat but it ended up trailing some way behind Plaid Cymru.

A Survation telephone poll published on October 16 suggested Plaid Cymru would come second with 38%, and the election…

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