Local elections: what would a good night look like for Nigel Farage’s Reform?

By Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics and Co-director of The Elections Centre, University of Exeter

English local elections on May 1 mark the first time widespread voting has happened in the UK since last year’s general election. They are therefore the first big test for the Labour government – but also for Reform’s Nigel Farage. Farage has led his party into elections before but not since becoming an MP.

Reform achieved 14.3% of the vote in July 2024 and opinion polls put them at around 25% now. Farage…

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