ASIO has now declared the terrorist threat to Australia is ‘probable’. What does this mean?

By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Mobility, Public Safety & Disaster Risk, UNSW Sydney
Ramon Spaaij, Professor, Institute for Health and Sport, Victoria University

ASIO has raised Australia’s national terrorism threat level from “possible” to “probable”.

In Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s announcement, he said “probable does not mean inevitable, and it does not mean there is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger.”

Instead, the elevated threat level is largely because more Australians are “embracing extremist ideologies”, indicating an increased risk of ideological terrorism and politically motivated violence.

How does ASIO decide what the threat level should be? And what do these decisions mean for the public?

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