Could Labour’s massive poll lead affect, as well as reflect, how it performs at the election? Three things the evidence tells us

By Matthew Barnfield, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London

The 2024 election is shaping up to be the most opinion-poll-heavy ever in the UK. And when so many polls are flying around, it can start to feel like they are setting the agenda as much as measuring the mood. It is often claimed that being routinely reminded that lots of people intend to vote for a party can drive others to support them, too.

In the case of the 2024 election, this would mean that Labour, ahead in the polls for over a year, would be gathering more support just by virtue of being ahead.

But, look into the…

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