Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it's close in Queensland

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the…

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