US election 2024: beware polling predictions as they can be wrong – but here's an approach which has often been on the money

By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

Despite the avalanche of legal indictments, Donald Trump remains favourite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election. According to a poll reported by the website Real Clear Politics on August 19, he has a 41% lead over his main rival Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, in the Republican nomination race. His lead over the other Republican hopefuls such as former vice president Mike Pence is even larger.

If he does win the Republican nomination the question is: can he win…

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