The limits of expert judgment: Lessons from social science forecasting during the pandemic

By Igor Grossmann, Professor of Psychology, University of Waterloo
Cendri Hutcherson, Associate Professor of Psychology, University of Toronto
Michael Varnum, Associate Professor of Psychology, Arizona State University

Imagine being a policymaker at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. You have to decide which actions to recommend, how much risk to tolerate and what sacrifices to ask your citizens to bear.

Who would you turn to for an accurate prediction about how people would react? Many would recommend going to the experts — social scientists. But we are here to tell you this would be bad advice.

As psychological scientists with decades of combined experience studying decision-making, wisdom,…

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