Progress in detection tech could render submarines useless by the 2050s. What does it mean for the AUKUS pact?

By Roger Bradbury, Emeritus Professor of Complex Systems Science, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Anne-Marie Grisogono, Adjunct professor, Flinders University
Elizabeth Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Cybernetics, Australian National University
Scott Bainbridge, Team Leader, Technology Development Engineering, Australian Institute of Marine Science
Scott Vella, Researcher at CAP Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU National Security College, Australian National University

The first AUKUS-class submarine will be delivered in the 2040s. We may only get about a decade of use before adversaries can easily detect the new boats.

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