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Final Victorian Newspoll gives Labor a large lead

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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The Victorian state election is today. There are 88 single-member lower house seats with members elected by preferential voting, and 40 upper house seats in eight five-member electorates. The election in the lower house seat of Narracan has been postponed owing to a candidate’s death.

The final Victorian pre-election Newspoll, conducted November 21-24 from a sample of 1,226, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the last Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (down two), 12% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (up…The Conversation


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