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A Republican bubble? How pollsters and pundits got the US midterms so wrong

By Anthony Pickles, Lecturer in Social Anthropology and International Development, University of East Anglia

During the month leading up to the US midterm elections, talk of a commanding Republican victory went from a “red wave” to a “red tsunami”. The Republicans were on for the win. The polls and gambling markets, or so-called “prediction markets”, were confident.

Only the red wave never broke – Democrats tightened their shaky grip on the Senate and, while they lost…

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