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US midterms: why gambling markets often predict elections more accurately than polls

By Anthony Pickles, Lecturer in Social Anthropology and International Development, University of East Anglia

This year’s US midterms are on a razor’s edge.

In the summer it appeared the US supreme court’s ruling on abortion and some legislative successes – most notably Build Back Better, a post-COVID infrastructure and social policy package – benefited the Democrats. It was believed they would overturn the long-held…

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