South Africa has entered a new phase of the COVID pandemic: what that means

By Michelle J. Groome, Head of the Division of Public Health Surveillance and Response, National Institute for Communicable Diseases
Juliet Pulliam, Director: SACEMA, South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling & Analysis (SACEMA)
Sheetal Silal, Director: Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), University of Cape Town

Confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 have been increasing in South Africa in recent weeks. This has been largely driven by two offspring – known as the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages – of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa late last year.

What’s notable about the most recent spike is that there are a number of differences between what the country is currently experiencing and the first four waves of COVID-19 in South Africa.

Firstly, nearly all South Africans now have some form of immunity. This is…

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