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Over the last 30 years, a fifth of polls have called the wrong winner. Here are 3 things poll-watchers need to understand

By Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University

Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.

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