How COVID health advice and modelling has been opaque, slow to change and politicised in Australia

By William Bowtell, Adjunct professor, Kirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, UNSW

In a recent article, The Australian’s health reporter asked: “has any modelling put forward by scientific institutes throughout the pandemic ever proved accurate?”

It’s a good question but the answer lies in understanding the truth about modelling — it cannot predict the future.

Rather, it’s a process that identifies variables most likely to shape the course of, say, a pandemic and to quantify their…

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