Doherty modelling update provides the goalposts, but local insights will determine play

By Christopher Baker, Research Fellow in Statistics for Biosecurity Risk, The University of Melbourne
Jodie McVernon, Professor and Director of Doherty Epidemiology, The University of Melbourne

The Doherty Report, released 10 August, underpins the vaccination targets in the federal government’s national reopening plan of 70% and 80% of the population aged over 16. However, since we began this modelling, we have seen large outbreaks in New South Wales and Victoria. These outbreaks prompt questions about how community prevalence…

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