Why COVID cases are now falling in the UK – and what could happen next

By Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine, University of East Anglia

After two months of soaring COVID-19 cases in the UK, numbers have again started to fall – and to the surprise of many, fall quite dramatically. New cases peaked at 54,674 on July 17 before falling to 23,511 on July 27.

We should note that whether this decline will continue is as yet uncertain, as the effect of lifting most of England’s remaining restrictions on July 19 is yet to work its way into the statistics. We probably won’t know the impact of this until at least the last day of July.

But why…

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