Why do our COVID outbreaks always seem to happen in Melbourne? Randomness and bad luck

By Nancy Baxter, Professor and Head of Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne
Tony Blakely, Professor of Epidemiology, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne

A man from Wollert, a suburb in Melbourne’s north, breezed into Melbourne from South Australian hotel quarantine, stopped at a 7-11, had a curry, shopped in Epping, took a train, and at some point, had a passing encounter with a stranger. Perhaps he coughed or spoke, or was simply breathing, but that was enough for a waft of aerosol to transmit COVID-19 to Melbourne’s missing link.

Three weeks later, at least 63 people in Victoria are infected with…

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