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Superforecasters: what pandemic planners can learn from the world's best predictors

By Gabriel Recchia, Research Associate, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge
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Experts got it catastrophically wrong, according to Dominic Cummings, UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser. Cummings has argued that the UK government’s official scientific advice in March 2020 hugely misunderstood how the pandemic would play out, leading to a delay in locking down that cost thousands of lives.

According to Cummings, it was certain specialists with less knowledge of pandemics or medicine – such as data scientist Ben…


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