COVID-19: which countries will be the next to see a big spike in cases?

By Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton

Beneath the many complexities of the marathon that is the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a simple hypothesis: if the coronavirus is introduced into a susceptible population, and those people are able to mix, then there will be significant community transmission. Across 2020 and 2021, we have seen this happen around the world, including, recently, in India.

Could we see further situations like those in India, with cases rapidly spiking and health systems being overwhelmed?…

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