The Scottish National Party leads a majority government in Scotland supported by the Green Party under a confidence and supply agreement. Both parties want to reverse the U.K. decision to leave the European Union by promoting the separation of Scotland from the U.K. Still, 62% of the Scottish people wanted to remain in the European Union. In 2014, the SNP promised a ¨once in a generation¨ referendum which meant there could not be any other independence referendum before 40 years; however, the SNP broke this promise by planning a second referendum in October 2023. Consequently, the British government refused to allow a second referendum and the Scottish First Minister, Nicola Surgeon, asked the U.K. Supreme Court to overrule the refusal of holding a second referendum by the Truss government. The Truss government does not intend to break down the 300-year-old union between Scotland and the rest of the U.K. British Prime Minister Liz Truss would not push back the nation into a divisible over the national unity.
The matter has been referred to the Supreme Court, the highest court can either allow or reject a second referendum and a decision is expected to be made in autumn 2022 or in early 2023. Nevertheless, most constitutional experts argue that Scotland cannot legally hold a referendum without the legislative approval of the Westminster Parliament; thus, any refusal from the Supreme Court to grant Scotland a referendum might only help the separatist flame to keep burning within the separatist movement. However, the British unionists should try to transform the U.K. into a federation which will give regions more powers while Westminster keeps powers relating to national and international matters. A federation could get some separatists back into the union movement which promotes national unity.
To begin, Scotland and England were united by the 1907 Act of Union under the reign of Queen Anne with the approval of the Scottish and English parliaments. This act created the Kingdom of Great Britain which was a winning new political union for both Scotland and England. For Scotland, many Scots wanted to prevent Catholic Stuarts from reintroducing absolute monarchy. Besides, Scotland wanted to secure its future under a Protestant constitutional monarchy. On the other hand, England wanted to prevent Scotland from siding with France in the War of the Spanish Succession, so England helped Scotland to pay off its debts. Since then, Scotland has often been proudly British and Scotland greatly contributed to modern United Kingdom. Since the discovery of oil fields in the North Sea in the 1970s, some people in Scotland feel uneasy with the Westminster Parliament and they want that Westminster grants more powers to the Scottish government. For that reason, there is a strong separatist movement in this region of the United Kingdom. Nowadays, the Scottish National Party represents this separatist movement within the Scottish Parliament. This separatist movement gained some support with the discovery of the oil fields in the North Sea because the SNP claimed that oil revenues solely belonged to the Scottish government and oil revenues should not fall under the jurisdiction of the British government. In 2014, the Scottish people voted decisively to stay in the United Kingdom in a referendum. However, the SNP government used the 2016 British withdrawal from the E.U. to gain back support for the separation of Scotland from Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Even though, the SNP claims that Scotland would be better off to re-join the European Union, the reality is that Scotland`s main economic partner is England and that a hard border between the two regions would be catastrophic for Scotland. 60% of Scottish exports go the rest of the United Kingdom. In 2020-2021, The British government contributed about £37 billion more to Scotland than the tax revenues paid by Scottish taxpayers. As a result, an independent Scotland would have to cover the lost financial support from the British government.
Moreover, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a unitary state which means that all government powers lie within the jurisdiction of the British Government and the Westminster Parliament in accordance with the U.K. Constitution. Westminster grants powers to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales, but these powers are devolved which means they are lent to regions of the U.K. In terms of referenda, Westminster is the solely authority in this matter because it has not devolved this power to Scotland.
In October 2022, the Supreme Court heard the case of the SNP and the British government over the constitutionality of a second referendum. The U.K. Supreme Court is likely to rule in favour of the British government because, under the 1998 Scotland Act, all matters relating to the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England are under the jurisdiction of the Westminster Parliament. Thus, any referendum on the separation of any British region would need the approval of the Westminster Parliament. Nevertheless, Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain, the Scottish government attorney, argues that any referendum is advisory and that it would not directly affect the Union. In sum, the main legal point brought forward by the SNP to hold a second referendum without London’s approval is that a referendum does not change the nature of the Union, but it is simply ¨consultative, not self-executing. ¨ On the other hand, the British government argues that Supreme Court should not rule on this matter because the jurisdiction is clear under the Scotland Act and that there has not been any referendum bill passed through neither the Scottish nor the British Parliament to rule on. In sum, the main point of the British government is that Westminster is sovereign and the power of holding a referendum, defined as a reserved power in the Scotland Act, falls under the U.K. Parliament jurisdiction.
Finally, the Scottish people rejected the separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom in 2014. At the time, the SNP government promised a ¨once in a generation¨ referendum. However, the Sturgeon government broke this promise by planning a referendum in October 2023. Nevertheless, the British government does not want grant Scotland the power to hold a referendum. As a result, the SNP government asked the Supreme Court to rule on whether Scotland can unilaterally hold a referendum on independence. The separatist SNP government expects to be granted the power to hold a referendum without the Westminster Parliament’s approval. On the other hand, the British government will not allow any referendum that could alter the state of the Union and London claims a referendum is within the scope of powers of the Westminster Parliament, not the Scottish Parliament because it relates to the Union of Scotland and England. Therefore, the SNP’s chances that a second referendum happen in Scotland are very slim without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Accordingly, the second referendum case currently heard by the Supreme Court Justice is not only a legal matter, but a political one. Most constitutional experts think that only the Westminster Parliament can authorize a referendum; therefore, the SNP will use any negative answer as political argument to find a way to leave the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the British unionists could try to reform the U.K. system by transforming the U.K. unitary state into a federation where there are two levels of government with clear and defined powers written in the constitution. A federation would not change the democratic and legal nature of the U.K, but it would rather clearly define areas of jurisdiction between two levels of governments. Scotland would get clear sovereign powers over local matters and Westminster will get clear powers over national and international matters based on the Canadian and Australian federative models of government.
Oct. 16, 2022