Since 1945, nuclear weapons have been used as a strategy of nuclear deterrence which has meant nuclear powers have not waged war against each other for fear of mutual assured destruction. Thus, modern peace and stability can be maintained through this concept of MAD. However, MAD is a Cold War concept of deterrence that only applies to nuclear powers, not to the non-nuclear power of Ukraine. Nowadays, the Ukrainian War challenges humankind as a whole for fear that several nuclear powers could participate in this war which could degenerate into nuclear warfare. NATO has three nuclear powers among its members and Russia is the supreme nuclear state with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons if NATO nations dare to intervene in the Ukrainian War. This military situation is a source of concern because Russia could escalate the conflict to a nuclear war that could threaten humankind. Still, the U.S. and NATO nations can stop some of the Russian ICBM missiles, but the true effectiveness of these ICBM defence systems still remains unclear.
To begin with, President Putin publicly put his nuclear deterrent on high alert after the first week of the Ukrainian War. This was meant to show the world that Russia poses a nuclear threat to any NATO nation that gets involved in the Ukrainian War. In late March 2022, the British Daily Mail revealed that the Russian President and his defence minister are currently hiding in a nuclear bunker. The Russian system of nuclear deterrence system is ready to operate on short notice in accordance with the Russian Commander-in-Chief's orders. NATO is concerned that Russia is under its highest level of nuclear readiness.
Nevertheless, this is very unlikely that Russia uses nuclear missiles because these military devices are deterrent weapons, unoffensive weapons. Besides, Vladimir Putin knows that this could lead to the complete annihilation of his nation due to the potential retaliation from other nuclear powers. At the start of the Ukrainian War, President Putin told the world that anyone who tries to stand in his way will suffer the consequences. He added that these consequences have never been seen in our entire history. Thus, Putin quickly used the nuclear threat to prevent NATO members from intervening in the Ukrainian war.
However, almost all nuclear powers, like Russia, follow the Mutual Assured Destruction Doctrine (MAD). According to this defence policy, to avoid any escalation that could reach the point of a nuclear war, two nuclear powers cannot wage war against each other A full-scale nuclear war could result in the complete annihilation of both nuclear nations at war. Thus, MAD defines the theory of deterrence used by modern nuclear powers. In any case, no nuclear power can win a war against another nuclear power due to the likelihood of mutual assured destruction. Nevertheless, the concept of MAD does not prevent a nuclear power from attacking a non-nuclear power.
Moreover, there are nine nations with nuclear weapons which are either officially recognized or known to have a nuclear arsenal. On the one hand, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States are officially recognized nuclear powers by the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In January, 2002, these countries all pledged to prevent nuclear weapons from spreading. However, there are other nations known to have nuclear weapons such as: Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and India. Still, the U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons account for 90% of all the global nuclear weaponry. The United Kingdom has 225 nuclear weapons using four Vanguard Class nuclear-powered submarines. There is always a British nuclear submarine at sea somewhere on Earth. On the other hand, the United States has 5,550 nuclear weapons which can be launched by submarines, bomber planes, and intercontinental missiles. Russia however has more nuclear warheads than the U.S. with 6,255 nuclear weapons which can be launched by submarines, bomber planes, intercontinental missiles, and weapon systems launching tactical missiles. Therefore, Russia is the most powerful nation in terms of the number of nuclear capabilities.
In addition, Russia follows a specific military doctrine when waging war against enemies and for defence purposes. According to this doctrine, Russia can use military weapons a) if ballistic missiles are fired at Russia or its allies, b) when an enemy uses nuclear weapons, c) if a Russian nuclear site is attacked, d) if the existence of the Russian state is being threatened. None of these criteria have been met during the Ukrainian War so far. However, the Russian military doctrine allows Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear power in order to force its opponent to surrender.
Furthermore, Russia's threat to use tactical nuclear bombs against a non-nuclear nation could raise several questions about world peace and security. The security of Western nations is a source of concern because Russia could wage a nuclear war if NATO gets involved in the Ukrainian War. For that reason, NATO claims it can stop a nuclear ballistic missile from attacking its territories, but this is a real challenge for defence forces. For instance, if Russia launches a nuclear missile toward any NATO territory, then the NATO long-range sensors will notice the nuclear missile. NATO will send another missile to destroy the enemy’s nuclear rocket. Besides, the U.S. has a similar nuclear shield system to protect America. However, these defence systems are not truly effective, and the best way to protect Europe and America is to avoid any nuclear war.
Finally, Western leaders are concerned with Putin’s mindset; they perceive President Putin as irrational and they are concerned that he could trigger a nuclear war which would threaten humankind. Some people describe Putin as an autocratic dictator. This is why French President Emmanuel Macron talks with Vladimir Putin on a regular basis in order to maintain a dialogue and to learn about Putin’s mindset. Emmanuel Macron told France 24 News in mid-March 2022 that Putin was not willing to put an end to the war. The French President felt that Putin was determined to continue his war until Russia’s goals are achieved. Fortunately, Vladimir Putin would probably not use any nuclear device in Ukraine to avoid any escalation with Western nations. As well, the Russian military doctrine has specific conditions about using nuclear devices, and none of these conditions have been met during this military conflict. As long as NATO nations do not directly fight against Russia, President Putin will not use nuclear weapons. Furthermore, nuclear weapons are deterrents, not offensive weapons, for Russia. Nevertheless, Western nations must keep their antimissile devices on high alert in case the unthinkable happens.
April 3, 2022