In 1993, the Russian Federation adopted a new constitution through a national referendum allowing democracy and capitalism for the first time in Russia. This piece of legislation was inspired by Mikhail Speransky’s constitutional project and the current French constitution. Modern Russia was created following the fall of the authoritarian Soviet Union. The 1993 Constitution defines Russia as a democratic and federative republic based on the rule of law. However, Yeltsin felt the need to strengthen the presidential powers under his first term in office in order to avoid any attempt of political coup. These super presidential powers will backfire years later with the arrival of Vladimir Putin who centralizes most of the government powers around his presidential office.
In addition, Putin’s power rests on three elements which are: the military and security, the government officials, and the oligarchs. Unfortunately, Vladimir Putin turns Russia into a dictatorship who has started to rule the nation with an iron fist. However, the Ukrainian War might be a wakeup call for Russians who have been enjoying some Western style freedoms since the early 1990s. Modern Russians are highly educated and this is very unlikely that Putin will continue to rule, especially with his intolerable war against the democratic and free nation of Ukraine. BBC reveals on March 8,2022 that Putin is very isolated from his inner circle. As a result, the harsh economic sanctions on Vladimir Putin and the widespread Russian opposition to Putin’s War in Ukraine might push him to step down as leader of the Russian Federation. Putin might either be impeached or the Russian elite might organize a coup against him.
To begin with, Vladimir Putin was born during the Cold War Era. He learned in martial arts, but he was not a very good student in school. Valdimir Putin came to power in 2000 as Acting President; he was supported by Boris Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Also, Putin was supported by the same business leaders who dominated the Yeltsin regime. These oligarchs pledged loyalty to Putin in return of keeping their personal wealth. Putin has full power over the government business through his personal appointments of government officials whose several have KGB backgrounds. Nowadays, only half a dozen people in the Putin administration hold real power. Thus, Putin’s power is very centralized within his inner circle; nevertheless, his associates could no longer support if they think that his personal war hurts Russia and that he is likely to lose his personal war against the sovereign nation of Ukraine. In contrast to Putin’s Russia, power was more decentralized in the Soviet Union. For instance, in 1964, Soviet President Khrushchev was removed from power by the Poliburo who accused Khushchev of mishandling the Cuban Missile Crisis. Besides, Khrushchev disregarded the Central Committee procedures and the Committee did not like the Soviet leader’s arbitrary decision making. Nowadays, there is no political institution, similar to a central committee, that can remove the Russian president from power. In sum, power is highly centralized around one man, Vladimir Putin.
Still, this is constitutionally possible to remove Putin from power through some constitutional mechanism drafted in the 1993 Constitution. There are two main clauses in the Constitution which can be used to remove a president from power. Section 92 reveals that ¨where the President of the Russian Federation is unable to fulfil his (her) duties, they shall be temporarily delegated to the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation. ¨ Therefore, the Prime Minister could be sworn in as Acting President in the event that the President is unfit for office. On other hand, the formal removal of a President could be more complicated through a formal process of impeachment as drafted in the constitutional act. Section 93 states ¨The President of the Russian Federation may be impeached by the Council of Federation only on the basis of charges of high treason or of another grave crime brought by the State Duma and confirmed by a resolution of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on the existence of indications of a crime in the actions of the President….and by a resolution of the Constitutional Court…confirming that the established procedure for bringing charges has been observed. ¨ Besides, the Duma and Council of Federation must have two-thirds of members supporting impeachment. There had been three failed attempts to impeach Boris Yeltsin for several accusations; therefore, this is a tough road to take for elected officials to replace a president.
Even though, Vladimir Putin succeeded to turn the Russian Federation into an authoritarian state, things could be changing among Russian elected officials because of the widespread opposition against the war in the general population despite risks of long term prison sentences. There have been some Communist Party members of the Duma who participated in the peace marches. Despite of pending criminal charges, thousands of people demonstrated against the War in Ukraine. As of March 11, 2022, more than 14,000 people, including children, have been arrested for demonstrating. Moreover, two oligarchs, Mikhail Friedman and Oleripaska, publicly promoted peace talks. Since the beginning of the Putin’s War, Russians have lost their freedom of expression enjoyed since the early 1990s with the fall of the Soviet Union and the enactment of the 1993 Constitution. They are now subject to arbitrary arrests if suspected of misinformation or of participating in peace demonstrations.
In addition, Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000 at a time when the Russian economy started to recover from years of economic recessions. Between, 1991 and 1995, Russia’s GDP fell 34% worst than what the U.S. had during the Great Depression, but the economy started to turn around in the 2000s for the better due to a strong global economy. In sum, he became very popular because Russia became wealthier. Nowadays, Western nations made very harsh economic sanctions against the Putin regime because of the Ukrainian War which could bring some civil unrest in the Russian Federation. Besides, Putin’s and the Russian Elite’s are now separated from each other, Putin’s War might be the mistake that could lead to a regime change. Therefore, a coup is possible, but this is hard to know whether or not this could ever happen. Still, British Channel 4 News, on March 3, 2022, reveals that Putin is very isolated and he no longer gets advice from oligarchs. We can expect million of Russians demonstrating could be a sign a change in Russia.
Nevertheless, Putin had been supported by oligarchs throughout his presidential terms. As a result, the Western World imposed drastic economic sanctions against the wealthiest Russians. In theory, these measures could force oligarchs to no longer support Putin. For that reason, Anatol Leiven writes in the Washington Post on March 4, 2022 that: ¨The West is hoping to undermine the regime through specific measures aimed at Russian ‘oligarchs’ with wealth and property abroad. Deep anxiety in the Russian business elites is already apparent, despite being called in by Putin to be lectured — and implicitly threatened — on the need for loyalty to the state in wartime. ¨ Thus, we can feel some anxiety in the Putin administration that needs to tightly control the war message and to explain on a daily basis the official reason behind this unacceptable war triggered by Vladimir Putin. Besides, public unrest could put intense pressure on the oligarchs, Russian elites, and the United Russia Party members to ask for the removal of Vladimir Putin from power. In addition, Fiona Hill, a foreign affairs specialist and academic, tells Newsweek on March 5, 2022 that: ¨an inner clique of people from intelligence, military and security services and that Putin would have to worry if "it looks like Russia is losing." Above and beyond, Putin greatly invested of a lot of Russian assets in this illegal war and Russia’s economy will suffer for years to come because Putin’s mistakes; thus, the military and secret service could turn their back on Putin.
Nevertheless, Putin’s plan of a quick and decisive victory over Ukraine failed according to several military experts. This war is seen as disgraceful by almost all of the World nations and the Russians started to be strongly opposed to this terrible war. Consequently, Anatol Leiven argues that ¨in important respects, the Kremlin’s plan has already failed. Everything depended on taking key areas of Ukraine quickly and with minimal civilian casualties. Even more importantly, Western economic retaliation has been much stronger and more united than Putin and his staff seem to have expected. ¨ Therefore, Washington Post’s Anatol Levien says that President Putin must be replaced, but no one expects Putin to resign. Thus, the easiest way Putin opponents could replace him is by making a coup; they could ask Putin and his associates to step down in return for personal immunity from arrest. This scenario could become reality since today’s Russia is different from the Soviet Russia because modern Russians enjoyed more freedom before this war starts than during the Soviet era. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz writes in Foreign Affairs on March 2 that: ¨But the thing about repressive regimes like Putin’s Russia is that they often look stable right up to the point that they are not. Putin has taken a major risk in attacking Ukraine, and there is a chance—one that seems to be growing—that it could mark the beginning of his end. ¨ Therefore, Putin’s reign could soon come to an end because the elite and the general population could rebel against the authoritarian leader. Hence, Sir Christopher Meyers tells GB News on March 1, 2022 that this could be likely that former KGB elite removes Vladimir Putin from power due to widespread popular disaffection towards the Putin regime. For instance, several experts think that Putin could removed from power, Charles Kupchan, a U.S. National Security Council aide to President Obama, tells INews U.K. that: ¨Vladimir Putin’s inner circle could move to replace him if they conclude that Russia has launched a losing war. ¨ Consequently, Putin’s war has changed the Russian economy for years to come and Putin seems to lose this war; thus, this is likely, the Russian elites could seek to replace him.
Finally, the Journal of Democracy, a Johns Hopkins scholarly journal, defines the Russia as: ¨Russian society is one of the world’s richest and most highly educated that is still ruled by dictatorship. ¨ Despite willful actions made in the early 1990s to democratize Russia, the former Soviet republic is still ruled by an authoritarian regime under the leadership of tyrant. Sadly, Vladimir disgracefully attacked a democratic nation in mid February 2022; the reason of this war is likely to take back control of the former Soviet Union Republic of Ukraine in order to make this region a buffer zone between Russia and the European Union/NATO nations. NATO is mainly a group of nations cherishing a collective security agreement and democratic values with no intent to attack the Russian Federation. Putin’s war made a wave of Ukrainian refugees trying to save their lives from the Russian strikes; this is the largest number of refugees since World War 2. Besides, Russian soldiers are accused of several war crimes by Western media and there have been popular anger against Putin’s actions throughout the World. Freedom of expression and of the press have been very limited in Russia. These fundamental freedoms have been taken for granted by the post Soviet generation of young people who now live in a Russia similar to the Soviet Union. Nowadays, people involved in peace activism can be arrested and they can be subject to long term prison sentences. Still, we can expect that current widespread civil unrest, despite Russian laws making it illegal opposing the war, and the harsh economic sanctions will push Putin and his inner circle to be replaced by a new administration through a semi coup or a rebellion among politicians against the current administration. In sum, Russian top government officials, the military, and politicians could get fed up with this useless war, they could decide to replace Putin as President by another person as head of the government in order to restore Russia’s prosperity and rule of law.
March 11, 2022