Labor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election

By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Labor’s worst Newspoll this term occurred in late November, when it was tied with the…

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